Autonomous emergency braking (AEB) is one of the most essential ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) features a vehicle can have. Studies have shown that implementing AEB reduces pedestrian crash risk by 25-27% and pedestrian injury crash risk by 29-30%.
As discussed in IDTechEx’s new report, “Infrared (IR) Cameras for Automotive 2025-2035: Technologies, Opportunities, Forecasts”, LWIR (long-wave infrared) camera technologies could drive the improvement of AEB systems in darkness and adverse weather conditions. IDTechEx assesses existing regional regulations on AEB and their effect on adopting infrared camera technologies in ADAS.
Due to NHTSA’s US regulations, the US passenger vehicle market will be the first to adopt LWIR cameras.
The first and most important regulation to be aware of is NHTSA’s ruling for AEB and pedestrian AEB in the US. In its report, NHTSA details the progress made in vehicle safety due to AEB before setting a 2029 deadline for all new vehicles installed to have AEB with more stringent requirements.
An essential requirement is that all new cars pass automatic braking tests against lead vehicles and pedestrians using a minimum level of illumination (low-beam headlights) with ambient lighting of 0.2 lux (night), as over 75% of pedestrian injuries occur in non-daylight conditions.
NHTSA believes that only 5% of new vehicles by 2029 will require hardware upgrades to meet these demands, as most vehicles will have advanced camera and radar technologies by 2029, so only software upgrades are required. However, the more pessimistic response from automotive OEMs and tier-one suppliers suggests this is potentially optimistic.
While current AEB systems use a combination of camera and radar technologies, both SWIR (short-wave infrared) and LWIR technologies would provide an additional sensing mode unaffected by darkness or fog. IDTechEx predicts that some OEMs will use these technologies to meet NHTSA’s requirements.
In contrast, others will upgrade existing camera and radar hardware or may install additional hardware such as LiDAR. Further details, analysis, and forecasts are discussed in IDTechEx’s new report, “Infrared (IR) Cameras for Automotive 2025-2035: Technologies, Opportunities, Forecasts”.
Opportunities and Regulations in Europe, China, and Other Regions
While regulations in other regions haven’t been as explicit yet, there are targets regarding AEB and vehicle safety overall, which may impact the uptake of AEB in vehicles. In the EU, all new cars were mandated to have AEB systems installed in 2022, and this was extended to existing vehicle models in 2024.
In addition, the EU’s Vision Zero initiative aims to achieve zero road fatalities by 2050, with an intermediary goal of halving the 19,800 deaths in 2021 by 2030. This included a ~US$7.6 million project, PROSPECT, which investigated camera, radar, and LiDAR technologies for pedestrian detection and AEB.
In 2023, the number of road fatalities in the EU was approximately 20,400, which is only a 1% decrease compared to 2022. This includes countries such as Spain, France, and Italy, where fatalities have barely decreased since 2019, and Belgium, Hungary, Poland, and others, where the number has increased.
With Europe-centric projects such as the HELIAUS Project and the lack of progress in reducing pedestrian fatalities, IDTechEx expects the technology developments driven by NHTSA’s regulation to be adopted in Europe from 2027. However, this will be more gradual due to the lack of concrete regulation.
The market penetration of AEB in China lags behind Europe and the US. IDTechEx estimates that the market penetration of AEB in the Chinese passenger market is approximately 40% as of 2024. In terms of sheer volume, however, China sold 30.1 million passenger vehicles in 2023, compared to 10.5 million in Europe in the same year.
With the projected increase in AEB penetration to exceed 60% by 2030, China presents a market opportunity for LWIR thermal cameras over the next ten years. As is expected in Europe, the technology developed in anticipation of the US market will result in a rise in LWIR-fused AEB in the Chinese market, starting from 2027.
The three largest passenger vehicle markets (the US, Europe, and China) have their own New Car Assessment Programs (NCAP). These programs evaluate a passenger vehicle’s overall safety using standardized test conditions. In the US, NHTSA operates these programs, which are mandatory for every new car, including its new night-time AEB condition tests, to be carried out in 2029.
The Euro NCAP, in contrast, is voluntary but has its tests for vehicle and VRU (child/adult pedestrian, cyclist, motorcyclist) encounters. At the start of 2024, China’s new C-NCAP regulations replaced the previous version from 2021 and placed greater importance on ADAS features such as AEB and VRU detection.
The C-NCAP involves AEB tests with pedestrians and two-wheelers, with speeds ranging from 10-80 km/h. It also covers scenarios where pedestrians are hidden from view or when a vehicle turns left and right. IDTechEx knows two Chinese OEMs who are introducing LWIR night vision into their cars. The technology is on the roads from OEMs, such as General Motors, BMW, and Mercedes, which have historically had optional night-vision systems.
Hardware and software upgrades would be required to integrate LWIR sensing into AEB for ADAS. Still, the fact that the technology is already being used reinforces IDTechEx’s forecast for LWIR-integrated AEB to enter the Chinese market at a time and rate similar to Europe’s. Other regions, including Japan and India, have their NCAP-style tests for assessing the overall safety of vehicles.
Autonomous Driving and IDTechEx Outlook
AEB will encourage the adoption of LWIR cameras in SAE level 1-3 vehicles, with most current on-road vehicles being level 1 or 2 in the European, US, and Chinese markets. IDTechEx predicts that there will be an even more significant demand for LWIR cameras for autonomous driving when SAE level 4 vehicles and robotaxis enter regional markets in the long term.
With greater demands on sensing for human-less driving placed on thermal sensors, LWIR cameras would need to have higher-definition cameras, as well as upgraded software and stereo vision technologies.
From the early 2030s, IDTechEx expects autonomous driving in SAE level 4 vehicles and robotaxis to be the dominant driver to further LWIR camera adoption in passenger vehicles. Granular forecasts by region and SAE level can be found in IDTechEx’s new report, “Infrared (IR) Cameras for Automotive 2025-2035: Technologies, Opportunities, Forecasts”.
Comments are closed.