Driverless Routes and Roboshuttles: Technologies, Trends and Forecasts

Automation can vary from level 0 to level 5 within the automotive industry, from sole reliance on driver control to completely driverless vehicles. Roboshuttles and autonomous buses will likely strive for level 5 operation as a long-term goal but are currently aiming for level 4, where driverless operations can occur within specific areas. 

IDTechEx’s report “Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts” provides insights into market developments and predictions for future growth.

Unlike most buses, roboshuttles are designed to be minor, with not-too-large capacities, making them ideal to deploy in higher numbers within small areas. Operating under level 4 driving conditions, they are driverless, efficient, and comfortable, accommodating up to 22 passengers. Despite being smaller than a minibus, the extra room allowed by having no driver means their 4–6-meter length can hold a greater capacity.

Commercialization can be tricky for roboshuttles, with many being deployed on trial but struggling to make it further. IDTechEx reports a decline in players from over 25 to just 12 since 2020, with most companies still in the early stages of development in 2023.

Lack of government funding and sufficient public interest will make it tricky for roboshuttle players to conduct more extensive trials and proceed to commercialization, with many exiting the market after the first, smaller trials.

In Q2 2024, 7 out of 11 companies within the roboshuttle sector were manufacturers, with three companies in China participating in large-scale testing over the past 2 years. This is promising for the roboshuttle industry. Success in these trials could pave the way for other companies and potentially incentivize newer startups to emerge.

Autonomous Buses – Mini, Midi, and City

Mini, midi, and city buses are among the various types of autonomous buses in all shapes and sizes. The higher capacity of buses compared to roboshuttles, at around 100 passengers per city bus, means fewer are likely to be needed within specific areas. Being considered a key part of urban infrastructures, there is a need and desire for significant government support to encourage the development of autonomous buses.

The large number of investments required for autonomous buses to become mainstream is indicated by the limited number of players within the market – even with the help of government subsidies. The regulatory challenges companies face, alongside the increased challenges and slow progress of level 4 systems in larger buses, are also factors slowing down commercialization.

Examples of Market Success

Many passengers per week are transported along a 14-mile autonomous bus route between Ferrytoll and Edinburgh Park, demonstrating these buses’ potential to succeed within cities along medium-distance routes. The autonomous night bus project in South Korea also currently fills a gap in the market where a shortage of taxis might otherwise cause transportation concerns, again highlighting a real-world application for these buses.

According to IDTechEx, minibus companies continue to increase despite declining city bus company numbers. IDTechEx outlines that these smaller buses are more likely to reach commercialization than alternatives such as roboshuttles due to the government support available.

VW’s MOIA minibuses are already operating in Germany for city centre coverage. Aurrigo, within the UK and Singapore, targets airport and cargo transportation, highlighting the growing success of autonomous minibuses.

What’s Next for the Autonomous Bus Market?

The development of autonomous buses and roboshuttles will continue somewhat slowly due to a lack of funding and regulatory challenges.

However, IDTechEx highlights the following stages of developments within their report, and with the already commercialized examples of autonomous city buses and minibuses, success in the industry is increasingly likely.

Over the next two years, IDTechEx predicts that roboshuttle trials with safety operators on board will expand and reports that in 2030, they will likely be commercialised without operators. Despite bus developments predicted to take longer, even with government support, they are likely to see commercial trials by 2030, with driverless operations across specific routes in place by 2035.